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1

How to determine markup valuation as an equity investment takes on token investors?

We have a portco that we invested in as an equity investor when they were an online experience platform. That business turned out not to be venture scalable. They team pivoted and raised another equity round... then they pivoted again into a blockchain gaming company. That company is doing very well now and they are the leaders in their space and with non-trivial revenue.  They have now raised $3M more in two subsequent funding rounds from blockchain-first investors who invest on a valuation basis of the fully diluted token value. This is good for company given that it is how their space commonly works. The fully diluted value of the token is substantial and (coupled with the progress for the company) certainly represents a mark up for our equity investment. As early equity investors, we will be receiving a token allocation as well. But determining a reasonable markup value is uncharted territory for us. I'm looking for advice from GPs who are familiar with the blockchain space on how to approach this. For context, we are entering fundraising mode for Fund II and capturing markups is an important element of the track record we have established. If this situation occurred in year one of deployment, marking the deal at cost would be fine. And that may be the right thing to do in the end. But given that the company has made material revenue traction sufficient to attract several million in additional capital investment, it seems worthwhile to take a minute to understand the implications of what amounts to two "priced rounds" from token-based investors. 

Top answer:

TL'DR - leave your valuation policy in-tact and manage these LP communications at the newsletter/report summary level rather then at the financial level. Each quarterly/yearly report where you include financial statements should be accom...

3

Forecasting exit value of startup?

Forecasting is obviously inaccurate, but how would you model a portfolio with "realistic" exit valuations?  Could startup's current deck provide any usable inputs for such model? E.g. market size, market CAGR, team experience etc? Obviously when founders say their ambition is just 100-500M$ exit, that tells something. But what else and how to factor in the assumptions?

Top answer:

Start with fund models from Foresight https://foresight.is/venture-fund-model-annual/ Exit potential from pre-seed and seed is more art than science. You're looking for team and product potential to scale dramatically to dominate (or cre...

2

Is a DCF (Discounted Cash Flows) method generally being used to calculate a startup valuation?

Since DCF method uses historical data to predict future cash flows of the company, this usually does not fit a startup since we have very little to no data on the cashflows. It is better to look for some benchmarks to tell valuation of a startup since it shows how others priced the companies in a given market/ geography/ setup. 

Top answer:

Startup valuations are typically set by the market of investors. If there is a high investor demand, the valuation of the startup is typically higher. If there is low investor demand, the valuation of the startup is lower. If there is no...